Italy Case

Background

  • Italian regions, ethernal divide
  • Lockdown almost simultaneous, excepted the Red Zone
  • First cases in Lombardia and Lazio hubs

Problem

  • Policies have no variability between regions
  • Baseline control: some regions start from worse situations
  • Cannot estimates some effects as for the nations case
  • To our defense, integration between databases came lately
  • Instrumental variables, more correct but tricky approach

Approach

  • Phase “1” versus Phase “0” comparison
  • Auto-regression: modelling active cases given past numbers
    • Related but not quite to the R0 index
  • Random effects for region and date, standard panel approach
  • Assuming policies effects seen ~14 days later
  • Controlling for testing frequency

Speed of contagion

ETV, Estimated Time to Victory

Joint view

A map of criticality

Anything weird?