Italy Case
Background
- Italian regions, ethernal divide
- Lockdown almost simultaneous, excepted the Red Zone
- First cases in Lombardia and Lazio hubs
Problem
- Policies have no variability between regions
- Baseline control: some regions start from worse situations
- Cannot estimates some effects as for the nations case
- To our defense, integration between databases came lately
- Instrumental variables, more correct but tricky approach
Approach
- Phase “1” versus Phase “0” comparison
- Auto-regression: modelling active cases given past numbers
- Related but not quite to the R0 index
- Random effects for region and date, standard panel approach
- Assuming policies effects seen ~14 days later
- Controlling for testing frequency
Speed of contagion

ETV, Estimated Time to Victory

Joint view

A map of criticality

Anything weird?